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首页 > 行情 > 分析评论 > 细木工板 > 生意社:板材产品市场行情分析(7.3-7.7)

生意社:板材产品市场行情分析(7.3-7.7)

  一.价格走势图

  据生意社监测数据显示,本周(7月3日-7月7日,下同)板材价格呈现下行趋势,周初细木工板价格为121.19元/张,中密度纤维板价格为72.47元/张;周末细木工板价格为121.06元/张,跌幅为0.11%,中密度纤维板价格为72.33元/张,跌幅为0.19%。

近三月中密度纤维板走势图

近三月细木工板走势图

  二.市场分析

  产品:据生意社监测数据显示,现阶段,细木工板与中密度纤维延续淡稳的局面,市场需求未见明显好转。本周,南方雨势迅且猛,长江爆发年度第一号洪水,湖南、广西、江西、湖北、安徽等地受灾严重,受不可抗天气因素影响,为避免板材受潮带来损失,商家选择停止交易,市场整体需求降低。进入七月也就意味着一年中最热季节的开始,高温作业必定带来人力成本上涨,为减少各项费用,两板厂商减少采购频次,整体行情走弱。家装市场淡季市场销售情况相对较差,虽然生产厂家有意识地控制产量降低库存,但厂家的实际库存量依然较大,因此不排除板材厂家继续采取让利降低库存的手法来回笼资金。

  产业链:上游:2017年5月,中国原木及锯材进口量为769万立方米,1-5月为3618万立方米。与2016年同期相增加14%。下游:1-5月份,房地产开发企业房屋施工面积671438万平方米,同比增长3.1%,增速与1-4月份持平。其中,住宅施工面积458116万平方米,增长2.6%。房屋新开工面积65179万平方米,增长9.5%,增速回落1.6个百分点。其中,住宅新开工面积46903万平方米,增长15.1%。房屋竣工面积33911万平方米,增长5.9%,增速回落4.7个百分点。其中,住宅竣工面积24232万平方米,增长3.4%。

  行业:2017年房地产行业进入后半场,前所未有的超严厉调控令短期内不会取消,“限购、限贷、限价、限售、限商”五限政策给房地产行业带来巨大冲击,一二线城市房产销售面积明显下降,调控令使房产格局发生变化,大型房地产企业依旧坚挺,中小型房地产企业承受不起风险或前景不容乐观,此政策或将给依靠房地产销售生存的板材行业带来影响。

  三.后市预测

  据生意社了解,现阶段属于两板市场销售淡季,两板厂商库存较为充足,足够满足市场消耗。中国社科院报告也指出,中国城镇化已完成,将大大减少对建材的需求,两板作为建材行业的重要产品需求或将相应减弱。生意社建材产品分析师预计,短时间内,细木工板、中密度纤维板的商品指数或将下滑一个百分点左右。

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